Forecast of Digital Infrastructure in 2023
CIO Review Europe | Tuesday, January 31, 2023
This forecast provides a model for understanding how a successful digital-first strategy is built on critical digital infrastructure investments across dedicated on-premises datacenters, edge locations, and public cloud resources.
FREMONT, CA: Despite sharp decreases in economic confidence, the previous year witnessed high bookings and low customer turnover for several digital infrastructure enterprises. There is an optimistic outlook for digital infrastructure companies this year, since new technologies are escalating the demand drivers that braces leasing.
With leases frequently indexed to trailing 12 month consumer price indices, international tower companies can expect accelerating organic revenue growth in 2023. This contract structure provides towers with one of the most predictable growth profiles in the digital infrastructure sector, and it is supported by improved pricing power at mobile network operators (MNOs), towers' primary tenants. In 2023, tower growth should be supplemented by their continued rollout of 4G services in emerging markets and 5G in developed markets.
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Due to the high credit quality of their tenants, tower operators are able to pass on the majority of their energy and maintenance costs to MNOs while still having strong access to the debt financing markets. Despite slower GDP and earnings growth in the overall economy, investors believe this winning formula will be evident in 2023. With data traffic expected to expand at a rate of more than 25 per cent annually between 2023 and 2028.
Previously, data centre operators continued to thoroughly surprise the market with another year of record bookings, fueled by cloud computing tenants. These pre-committed leases on new facilities will begin to generate revenue within the next few years, providing data centre developers with good visibility. Simultaneously, a lack of future land and power capacity in major markets is likely to limit new supply, increasing occupancy and rental rates on existing facilities. Moreover, in 2023, it is forecasted that the artificial intelligence tools will play a greater role in the digital economy, demanding for more data centre capacity.
Similarly, the fund will make a positive come back this year, with the market refocusing on the portfolio firms' reduced valuations and robust demand profiles. Dismally, recession risks have increased globally. Central banks should start to let off the gas pedal on rate hikes as they start to notice demand destruction causing inflation to moderate. Positive digital infrastructure earnings growth should be able to support strong share price performance against a backdrop of more stable inflation and interest.
Given the reset in valuation multiples, many publicly-traded digital infrastructure companies are trading far below their historical averages. This contrasts with exorbitant valuations in some privately funded acquisitions; a division that cannot be sustained. If the disparity persists, one can expect more privatisations of public companies, with private funds taking advantage of the available arbitrage. Despite pockets of outperformance previously, emerging markets with greater recessionary resilience may attract additional investor flows in the coming year.
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